How much chess improvement is possible?

This question is just a version of the question many in the chess world have been discussing for a while:
Can International Master Levy Rozman, also known as Gotham Chess with over 5 Million YouTube subscribers, become a Grandmaster? And even more relatable for most of you, can Neal Bruce, an adult improver, become a National Master? Unless the goal is absolutely ridiculous, my answer is usually: Yes, you can, but I'm not sure if you will.

In this article, I will explain why I'm convinced we can all achieve more than we think and why most of us will never achieve our full potential.

Train well, and you will get better.

Let's start with something I hope everyone will agree on. If you train a skill the right way, you will improve that skill. That's just a way of describing brain plasticity. Everyone has it. Kids have more of it, which means they can improve quickly. However, adults still have some of it, which means everyone can improve their skills through smart training.

Ok, what about this one: Nearly nobody has ever reached their full potential. Just a few things nobody I know does perfectly in chess:

• Openings (can always learn more)
• Focus (better sleep, better nutrition, meditation...)
• Understanding of the game
• Decision making
• Keeping your calm when winning

the list goes on and on. Even the best player of all time, Magnus Carlsen, could still improve some things.
Could Magnus reach a 2900 FIDE classical rating? Probably, yes. He was 2880 and didn't do everything perfectly. Why shouldn't 2900 be possible?

Possible, yes, likely, no

We humans are so much more capable than most of us think. Those who believe in themselves and put in a lot of time and effort continuously achieve things deemed "impossible." One of my favorite anecdotes is the 4-minute mile. For decades, everyone believed it was impossible to run a mile in under 4 minutes. On May 6, 1954, Roger Bannister broke that threshold by clocking 3 minutes 59 seconds.
Only a year later, in a single race, 3 different runners broke the 4-minute barrier. As of today, over 1,000 (read that again!) runners broke the 4-minute mile. Impossible... well, not really.

The same thing happens in Chess with the youngest-ever Grandmasters. Records that seemed 'forever' are broken in an always shorter time span.
Six out of the seven youngest Grandmasters in history have achieved their title since 2018. You don't have to be a genius to predict that the 12-year-old barrier will eventually break.
https://embed.filekitcdn.com/e/TScyDeYVzZ1g8xdohANnY/mX4ErXFXSpBo3ZEVmRCMQE
Youngest Chess GMs. Except for Karjakin, everyone else on this list became GM in the past six years.

While working on this article, Faustino Oro broke the youngest IM record at 10 years, 8 months, and 16 days. Who knows, maybe he will already be a GM before turning 12 years old?
When I compare these insane achievements with the ambitious goals of Levy Rozman and Neal Bruce, I can't help but think:
Absolutely, their goals are within reach. But the right question to ask is:
Are they ready to invest the time, energy, and finances required to achieve their goals?

Not everyone can reach everything.

Before we get into what you should to to achieve high goals, let me shortly say that I in no way mean everyone can be a Grandmaster or World Champion. Talent is a thing and plays a role. When you start and what opportunities you get along your way also matter a lot when you want to become one of the best in a specific field. I won't ever be an NBA player, even if I started the most amazing training regime. Can I become a decent Basketball player starting at 27? I bet you, yes. But World Class - no chance.

When you look at the three examples I started the newsletter with, none of those is out of reach.
Levy has proven a certain amount of talent by becoming IM. The gap to GM requires a lot of work, but most, if not all, IMs can become GMs if they do the right things for a long time. The same goes for adult improvers with ambitious goals. Last time I checked, the average Swiss over-the-board rating was roughly 1800, which makes 2200 clearly above average but not out of this world.

How to achieve big goals

If I'm so convinced that it is possible, why do I then think it is rather unlikely it will happen? Because I know what it takes.
A lot of time, energy, determination, and sacrifices. Achieving anything worthwhile will come with trade-offs. Otherwise, everyone would do it, and it wouldn't be that worthwhile any more.

I'm very curious to see how Levy's road to GM will go. He started with two great tournaments, but that is just the beginning. If I had to give an estimate, here is what I think it takes for him to go from 2330 FIDE to 2500 FIDE and 3 GM-norms:

• 2-3 hours Training per day for 3-5 years
• 150-300 Classical games
• Working on his mindset with a professional
• Exercises for mind & body

Taking the low estimate, 2 hours daily (5 days a week) for 3 years plus 150 classical games (~5 hours per game with prep), we get to roughly 2250 hours invested. That's a lot of time he could have invested otherwise, and it's a big enough time span to lose motivation and come up with other interests.
And that's if he does things the right way! Training the wrong things or with the wrong intensity will easily 2x the time investment needed.

Trade-offs

Investing this time into chess improvement means you take it away from something else. Family, other hobbies, health, career.
The most straightforward way of understanding trade-offs is to see what you would earn if you put this time into your career. In Levy's case, his earning power is probably in the range of $1,000-$10,000/hour.

Again, taking the low estimate, 2250 x $1,000 is $2.25 Million. So the question becomes, is Levy ready to trade millions of dollars for hard training and a potential GM title?

Stop asking what is possible

If you take anything at all from this article, then please be it: Stop asking the wrong question.
Is it possible to achieve XYZ? doesn't bring you anywhere. Either you are delusional, or it is possible but rather hard. So, better ask yourself:
Am I ready to give what it takes to become the best version of myself? If the answer is no, then no goal will ever be strong enough to keep you committed for a long period of time. First, change your attitude, then set goals.

If the answer is yes, then start training and see where your journey will go. The best way to find out if a goal is possible is by trying to achieve it. Maybe you will be the exemplary chess improver, reaching a milestone everyone thought was impossible.
Just like Roger Bannister, who ran the 4-minute mile and opened the floodgates for so many others.

Are you ready to do what it takes?

Can't wait to put in hard work to improve your game? Here are a few resources that guide you on that path:

• What you should spend your time on - the 1/3 rule
• How to create your first plan
• Creating a chess zone to enhance focus

If you are determined, my Next Level Training course is perfect for you. I'll teach you how and what to study to improve your game. Once you study it, you know exactly how to improve your chess. You then only have to put in the time and energy.

Keep improving,
Noël

Whenever you're ready, there are three ways I can help you:

- Get my Free eBook, The Art of Chess Training. It teaches you all you need to know to start training in a structured, efficient way.

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